Finding Your Own Horse Racing Best Bets by Profit Handicapping



In horse racing there is handicapping and then there is profit handicapping. Profit handicapping means that you assign fair odds to each horse based on your calculations and then use those fair odds to find profitable bets. It isn’t enough to just decide a horse is most likely to win the race or second most likely to win a race, you must also figure out what that is worth in dollars and cents, pounds, euros, sheckles, or wampum or whatever you are using to keep score of how you are doing as a horse picker.

A good way to start your search for a best bet is to use a good horse racing system to handicap the race and decide which horse, in your estimation, has the best chance of winning the race and place a 1 beside it. Next, decide which horse is the second most likely to win and place a 2 beside it and so on, until you have figured out a reasonable order for how you think each runner will fare.

Now go back and look at the factors that you thought made the first horse the best and compare each one of them to the next best horse. If the best horse has an average speed rating of 100 and the next best horse has a speed rating of 90, it doesn’t mean that the best horse is ten percent better and will win 10% more times than the second best horse. You still have to consider all the other factors.

After comparing all the factors, add the percentages as well as you can. If the top horse has earned 20% more money in its last 5 races add that to the mix as well. When you have done this for each horse, comparing it to the next best horse, you should have developed a hierarchy of percentages, for instance, horse 1 is 20% better than horse 2 who is 10% better than horse 3, etc.

Looking at how much better each horse is than its closest competitor, you should then be able to assign fair odds. If the favorite is at 2-1 in your reckoning, then the next best horse may be at 3-1 and so forth. These are fair odds that reflect what you think is a break even bet on each horse. For instance, if you bet the 1 horse every time it ran at 2-1, you think that it would win about one out of three races and you would get a base return of $6 to cover the three base win bets of $2 for each race.

Now apply those odds by watching the tote board before the race and looking for the best value. The best value, based on the ratio of tote board odds to your odds is your best bet. If you assigned 5-1 on a horse and it is going off at 15-1 that means it will pay three times what you think it is worth. If you assigned 10-1 to another horse and it is also going off at 15-1 it means it will only pay 50% profit compared to what you think it is worth. Obviously the former is the best bet because when it wins it will pay three times what it is worth.

That is how you use profit handicapping to make a profit at horse racing.

The most consistent horse racing systems have to have the basics and a handicapper must understand the basics. I have been around horse racing for 50 years including as an owner. Without the basics the rest is not going to do any good. If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://williewins.homestead.com/truecb.html and get the truth.

Bill Peterson is a former horse race owner and professional handicapper. He comes from a horse race handicapping family and as he puts it, “Horse Racing is in my blood.” To see all Bill’s horse racing material go to http://williewins.homestead.com/handicappingstore.html, Bill’s handicapping store.

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Category: Betting Systems

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